Prediction Markets as an Information Aggregation Tool for Effective Project Management in Defense Acquisition Projects

Report Number: NPS-AM-11-C8P21R02-072

Series: Acquisition Management

Category: Performance Based Management

Report Series: Proceedings Paper

Authors: Ricardo Valerdi, Matthew Potoski

Title: Prediction Markets as an Information Aggregation Tool for Effective Project Management in Defense Acquisition Projects

Published: 2011-04-01

Sponsored By: Acquisition Research Program

Status: Published--Unlimited Distribution

Research Type: Other Research Faculty

Full Text URL: http://acquisitionresearch.net/files/FY2011/NPS-AM-11-C8P21R02-072.pdf

Keywords: Cost Estimates, Schedule Estimates, Prediction markets, Schedule Estimates, Estimation Methodologies

Abstract:

A central challenge in defense acquisition is the development of accurate cost and schedule estimates. The lack of discipline in estimating and unrealistic expectations in the early phases of programs have been often cited as common causes for poor performance of large programs (GAO, 2004, 2006). Initial estimates provided by contractors are known to