The Correct Use of Subject Matter Experts in Cost Risk Analysis

Report Number: NPS-AM-10-031

Series: Acquisition Management

Category: Cost Risk Analysis

Report Series: Proceedings Paper

Authors: Richard L. Coleman, Peter J. Braxton, Eric R. Druker

Title: The Correct Use of Subject Matter Experts in Cost Risk Analysis

Published: 2010-04-01

Sponsored By: Acquisition Research Program

Status: Published--Unlimited Distribution

Research Type: Other Research Faculty

Full Text URL: http://acquisitionresearch.net/files/FY2010/NPS-AM-10-031.pdf

Keywords: Cost Risk Analysis

Abstract:

Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) are commonly used in cost risk analysis (and in other fields as well) for values that either are not available in historical data or for which no appropriate analogy can be found. Problems commonly arise in two areas in particular: (1) when multiple experts give opinions on a single effect or entity and the inputs are not identical in distribution (which is almost inevitable), and (2) when a single expert provides distributional information that is intractable or suspiciously unlikely in its form (which is common).This paper will put forward correct solutions in case (1), in which the authors