A Complex Systems Perspective of Risk Mitigation and Modeling in Development and Acquisition Programs

Report Number: SYM-AM-16-062

Series: Acquisition Management

Category: Complex Systems Governance (CSG)

Report Series: Symposium Proceedings

Authors: Roshanak Nilchiani, Antonio Pugliese

Title: A Complex Systems Perspective of Risk Mitigation and Modeling in Development and Acquisition Programs

Published: 2016-05-01

Sponsored By: Acquisition Research Program

Status: Published--Unlimited Distribution

Research Type: Other Research Faculty

Full Text URL: http://acquisitionresearch.net/files/FY2016/SYM-AM-16-062.pdf

Keywords: Risk assessment, acquisition programs, complex systems

Abstract:

The current methodologies used in risk assessment are heavily subjective and inaccurate in various life cycle phases of complex engineered systems. The increase in complexity has caused a paradigm shift from root cause analysis to the search of a set of concurrent causes for each event and the relevant complexity content of the system. Many of the system